Cooper Flagg, ADP 10, risque-t-il de décevoir en fantasy NBA 2026-27?
A SportsLine simulation run 10,000 times flags a Lakers center as a sleeper, a Kings rookie as a breakout and a Mavericks star as a first-round risk.
In brief
- The SportsLine model simulates the NBA season 10,000 times and updates its rankings several times a day.
- Sleeper: Lakers center Walker Kessler, ADP 56. Breakout: Kings guard Darius Acuff Jr., ADP 48.
- Bust: Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg, drafted around No. 10 in many leagues.
- CBS Sports ranked Nikola Jokic first in its top 12 as of October 13.
Fantasy managers weighing three names before their drafts, Walker Kessler, Darius Acuff Jr. and Cooper Flagg, get a clear steer from a computer model: target the first two, and think twice about paying a first-round price for the third. The advice comes from CBS Sports, in an article published on October 17, 2026.
A season that reshuffles the board
The 2026-27 NBA season was due to tip off three days after that article appeared, and CBS Sports says the moves since the Knicks ended their long title drought in June affect where players should be drafted. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown are in Philadelphia, Kawhi Leonard is back in Toronto, and Giannis Antetokounmpo has gone to Miami.
Kyrie Irving, Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard return after missing all of last year. Among rookies, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson are described as top picks who should get chances to produce immediately, while non-lottery draftees such as Cameron Carr and Christian Anderson Jr. are called hard to project.
What the SportsLine model offers
The projections come from SportsLine, whose model plays out the season 10,000 times. Its cheat sheets are refreshed several times a day and can be used for leagues on many major sites. Its record from last year, as CBS Sports tells it:
- Kevin Porter Jr. was tagged as a sleeper against an ADP of 70, 30th among guards. He finished 16th among guards in fantasy points per game and was one of seven players to average at least 17 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds.
- Jordan Poole was flagged as a bust, and he posted his lowest points, rebounds and assists totals in five seasons.
- Breakout seasons were predicted for Paolo Banchero and Victor Wembanyama before each won Rookie of the Year.
These are the model’s predictions and the publisher’s own account of its record, not guarantees for this season.
The sleeper and the breakout
Kessler and Acuff are the two value plays, and the contrasts in their profiles explain the model’s enthusiasm.
| Player | Role in the model | ADP | Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Kessler, Lakers C | Sleeper | 56 | Signed a 4-year, $130 million deal; played five games last year after season-ending shoulder surgery |
| Darius Acuff Jr., Kings PG | Breakout | 48 | No. 7 overall pick; first freshman to win the Bob Cousy Award |
Kessler is expected to be the third piece of the Lakers’ new Big Three behind Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. CBS Sports says he ranked fifth in rebounds (12.2) in his last full season and shoots nearly 70% from the field. The model places him as the No. 13 center, level with Kristaps Porzingis and Rudy Gobert.
Acuff was a consensus first-team All-American, adding 6.4 assists and 3.1 rebounds to his scoring and making 44% of his 3-point attempts. With Russell Westbrook retired and DeMar DeRozan gone from the Kings, CBS Sports sees little standing between him and a central offensive role. The model ranks him above Trae Young, Jalen Williams and De’Aaron Fox.
Why Flagg is the bust pick
Flagg, last season’s Rookie of the Year at 21 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists, carries an ADP of 10. That puts him in the first round of many drafts, ahead of Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Donovan Mitchell. CBS Sports calls his floor fairly high but points to two adjustments: sharing the ball with Irving, and playing for new head coach Dusty May, who arrives from the collegiate ranks.
The model ranks him behind forwards such as Banchero and Anthony Davis, both of whom are going after him in current ADP data.
CBS Sports’ own top 12 as of October 13 runs: Nikola Jokic, Doncic, Wembanyama, Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Johnson, Edwards, Flagg (11.32), Maxey (11.75) and Alperen Sengun (14.17).
Photo: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class James R. Evans / Wikimedia Commons
